How Long Does It Take To Get Into Flow State The Flow of Nuclear Weapon Proliferation – What Nation-State is Next to Get a Nuke?

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The Flow of Nuclear Weapon Proliferation – What Nation-State is Next to Get a Nuke?

Have you ever wondered which nation might get nuclear weapons next? We have recently seen North Korea get a nuclear weapon and we know Iran is working on it, we suspect nations like Libya and others, the question is what comes next and how will that change the balance of security against a nuclear exchange or a terrorist group that has acquired one?

What a crazy time we live in, so many nations seem to be going nuclear, no no nuclear, which is hardly a concern of world leaders, after all, as long as spent fuel rods are properly disposed of, no harm, no foul – even today it is about clean energy. No problem there, but when it comes to nuclear weapons; wow, that’s just awesome stuff. Today we have Iran and North Korea as the next in line among the nations with nuclear capabilities, but who will they be in the next ten years – that is, who is next?

Well, to give you my guesses, what do you think of these nations; Algeria, Libya, Thailand, Venezuela, Brazil, Vietnam – will they be added to the list of nuclear weapon nations within ten years? And if Venezuela becomes a nuclear weapon nation, what about the rest of Hugo Chavez’s ALBA group? I mean, this is all possible, so I talked about it with Jesse Giraldo, an expert on post-Cold War US-Russian international relations, and he said; “Frankly, I don’t see any of those nations becoming a nuclear power in the next few years simply because I don’t see their need to.”

However, I would say that within a decade, if things don’t change, they will be some of the nations to watch. If North Korea or Iran get theirs, expect many more to follow, just as Pakistan once it got its nuclear capability shared its technology with many other nations, including Iran. So, with whom will these new players and existing players share knowledge and technology? Jesse states; “Nuclear arming these nations would only drain their treasury and cause unnecessary diplomatic difficulties, while giving them very little real political leverage.”

It would really complicate things economically, politically and diplomatically, but it might not cost them much, especially if countries like Pakistan give them technology and/or North Korea, Iran start sharing technology or producing weapons for sale. Giraldo says; “I suppose it’s possible for Venezuela to become a nuclear power, but then again I don’t think any of these nations find it particularly attractive to do so in the near future.”

Maybe so, maybe Jesse Giraldo is right about that, and then again, Hugo Chavez would love to have a nuke or two, just to smear it in our faces. Indeed, I hope that the IAEA, the UN, NATO and the current nuclear power nations will consider this growing dilemma.

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